Trends In Incidence Research Articles

Secular trends in the incidence and treatment patterns of primary hyperparathyroidism in Korea: a Nationwide cohort study

Abstract Data on epidemiology and secular trend in primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) in adults is relatively limited in Asian countries. This study aims to provide an overview of the secular trends in incidence, clinical characteristics, and treatment patterns of PHPT in South Korea. We used Korea’s National Health Insurance Claim database (2005–2020) to identify newly diagnosed PHPT cases. Individuals with age below 19, fewer than two E21.0 diagnoses, fewer than two parathyroid hormone measurements, secondary hyperparathyroidism, undergoing dialysis or kidney transplantation within a year of diagnosis, parathyroidectomy (PTX) within a year prior to the diagnosis code, and diagnosis of multiple endocrine neoplasm or parathyroid carcinoma were excluded from the analysis. A total of 6837 patients with PHPT (PTX, n = 2989; non-surgery, n = 3848) were compared to 1:10 age- and sex-matched controls (n = 68 370). The mean age of patients with PHPT was 56.0 years, with 77.4% being women. The annual incidence of PHPT increased from 0.23/100000 persons in 2005 to 1.75 in 2020, with higher rate in women than in men. Compared to 2005-2010 (n = 675), the number of newly diagnosed PHPT cases increased up to 3.1-fold (n = 2119) in 2011-2015 and 6.0-fold (n = 4043) in 2016-2020 periods. Among all patients with PHPT, 43.7% of patients underwent PTX, with decrement of proportion of bilateral surgery among PTX group across time (11.9% in 2005-2010 to 8.9% in 2016-2020, p for trend 0.033). Among all patients with PHPT, non-surgery group increased from 41.6% in 2005-2010 to 58.0% in 2016-2020 (p for trend <0.001). Patients with PHPT had higher odds of osteoporosis (odds ratio [OR] 7.03), renal stones (OR 10.55), chronic kidney diseases (OR 7.42), and cardiovascular, metabolic, and neurological conditions after adjustment for comorbidity index. In summary, the incidence of PHPT increased from 2005 to 2020 with predominance of non-surgical treatment, which calls for research focus on improving non-surgical management.

Investigating the temporal trends of diabetes disease burden in China during 1990-2019 from a global perspective

IntroductionDiabetes poses a global public health challenge and our understanding of its temporal evolution in China relative to the rest of the world is limited. Our study aims to comprehensively examine the temporal trend of diabetes DALYs in China from a global perspective.MethodsWe analyzed data on diabetes incidence, prevalence, and mortality for individuals aged ≥20 years in China and globally from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We assessed trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of diabetes in China and globally by estimating annual percentage changes (EAPCs). We employed decomposition analysis to reveal factors driving the trend of diabetes DALYs in China.ResultsDuring 1990-2019, the number of diabetes patients increased by 160% from 35.14 million to 91.70 million in China. The ASIR of diabetes increased from 249 per 100,000 to 329 per 100,000 in China, which was lower than the global rate (419 per 100,000 in 2019). The EAPC of diabetes incidence was also lower in China compared to the global rate (1.02% vs. 1.57%). Consistently, the age-standardized prevalence rate of diabetes increased from 4788 per 100,000 to 8170 per 100,000 during 1990-2019 in China, which remained lower than the corresponding global rate (8827 per 100,000 in 2019). Further, the ASMR of diabetes increased from 9 per 100,000 to 15 per 100,000 during 1990-2019 in China, which was lower than the corresponding global rate (30 per 100,000 in 2019). However, EAPC of diabetes mortality in China was much higher than the global level (1.75% vs. 1.07%). Globally, the rising diabetes DALYs was predominantly attributed to population growth (55.2%) and epidemiologic changes (24.6%). In comparison, population growth (48.9%) also played an important role in the increasing diabetes DALYs in China, but aging (43.7%) was second major contributor.ConclusionOur findings show that diabetes DALYs in China followed a global increasing trend during 1990-2019. Notably, aging has a very substantial contribution to the increase in diabetes DALYs in China in addition to population growth.

Variations in the Anatomic Morphology of the Scapular Spine and Implications on Fracture After Reverse Shoulder Arthroplasty.

This study evaluates the role of anatomic scapular morphology in acromion and scapular spine fracture (SSAF) risk after reverse shoulder arthroplasty (RSA). Twelve scapular measurements were captured based on pilot study data, including scapular width measurements at the acromion (Z1), middle of the scapular spine (Z2), and medial to the first major angulation (Z3). Measurements were applied to 3D-CT scans from patients who sustained SSAF after RSA (SSAF group) and compared with those who did not (control group). Measurements were done by four investigators, and the intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated. Regression analysis determined trends in fracture incidence. One hundred forty-nine patients from two separate surgeons (J.L., A.M.) were matched by age and surgical indication of whom 51 sustained SSAF after reverse shoulder arthroplasty. Average ages for the SSAF and control cohorts were 78.6 and 72.1 years, respectively. Among the SSAF group, 15 were Levy type I, 26 Levy type II, and 10 Levy type 3 fractures. The intraclass correlation coefficient of Z1, Z2, and Z3 measurements was excellent (0.92, 0.92, and 0.94, respectively). Zone 1 and 3 measurements for the control group were 18.6 ± 3.7 mm and 3.2 ± 1.0 mm, respectively, compared with 22.5 ± 5.9 mm and 2.0 ± 0.70 mm in the SSAF group, respectively. The fracture group trended toward larger Z1 and smaller Z3 measurements. The average scapular spine proportion (SSP), Z1/Z3, was significantly greater in the control 6.20 ± 1.80 versus (12.60 ± 6.30; P < 0.05). Regression analysis showed a scapular spine proportion of ≤5 was associated with a fracture risk <5%, whereas an SSP of 9.2 correlated with a 50% fracture risk. Patients with a thicker acromions (Z1) and thinner medial scapular spines (Z3) have increased fracture risk. Understanding anatomic scapular morphology may allow for better identification of high-risk patients preoperatively.

Thyroid Cancer Incidence Among Korean Individuals: A Comparison of South Korea and the United States.

To compare thyroid cancer incidence rates and trends between Korean, non-Korean Asian, and non-Hispanic White populations in the United States, and between the US Korean population and the South Korean population. Population-based analysis of cancer incidence data. Cases of thyroid cancer diagnosed during 1999-2014 from the Korean Central Cancer Registry (KCCR) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 9 detailed Asian/Pacific Islander subgroup incidence and population dataset were included. Incidence rates were obtained from the datasets, and annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rates was calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. Thyroid cancer incidence rate for 1999-2014 was significantly higher for South Korea (48.05 [95% CI 47.89-48.22] per 100,000 person-years) than for the US Korean population (11.12 [95% CI 10.49-11.78] per 100,000 person-years), which was slightly higher than the Non-Korean Asian population (10.23 [95% CI 10.02-10.43] per 100,000 person-years), and slightly lower than the Non-Hispanic White population (12.78 [95% CI 12.69-12.87] per 100,000 person-years). Incidence rates in South Korea increased dramatically (average APC 17.9, 95% CI 16.0-19.9), significantly higher than the US Korean population (average APC 5.0, 95% CI 3.1-6.8), which was similar to the non-Korean Asian (average APC 2.5, 95% CI 0.9-4.2) and the non-Hispanic White (average APC 5.1, 95% CI 4.7-5.6) populations. South Korea's high thyroid cancer incidence rates cannot be attributed to genetic factors, but are likely due to health care system factors. 3 Laryngoscope, 2024.

Kidney Cancer Incidence Among Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native Populations in the United States, 1999-2020.

Background Non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native (NH-AI/AN) people experience a disproportionate incidence of kidney cancer. Nationally aggregated data does not allow for a comprehensive description of regional disparities in kidney cancer incidence among NH-AI/AN communities. This study describes kidney cancer incidence rates and trends among NH-AI/AN compared to non-Hispanic White (NHW) populations by geographic region. Methods Using the United States Cancer Statistics American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) Incidence Analytic Database, we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates (per 100,000) of kidney cancers for NH-AI/AN and NHW people for the years 2011-2020 combined using SEER*stat software. Analyses were restricted to non-Hispanic persons living in purchased/referred care delivery area (PRCDA) counties. Average annual percent changes (AAPCs) and trends (1999-2019) were estimated using Joinpoint regression analyses. Results Rates of kidney cancer incidence were higher among NH-AI/AN compared to NHW persons in the U.S. overall and in 5 of 6 regions. Kidney cancer incidence rates also varied by region, sex, age, and stage of diagnosis. Between 1999 and 2019, trends in rates of kidney cancer significantly increased among NH-AI/AN males (AAPC = 2.7%) and females (AAPC = 2.4%). The largest increases in incidence were observed for NH-AI/AN males and females under age 50 and those diagnosed with localized stage disease. Conclusions Study findings highlight growing disparities in kidney cancer incidence rates between NH-AI/AN and NHW populations. Impact: Differences in geographic region, sex, and stage highlight opportunities to decrease prevalence of kidney cancer risk factors and improve access to preventive care.

Exploring CJD incidence trends: insights from Slovakia

ABSTRACT Authors are commenting on the evolving geographical incidence trends observed with the genetic form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and discussing the diverse array of factors contributing to the heightened incidence rates observed in specific geographical regions.

Temporal trends in acute coronary syndrome by subtype

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements None. Introduction Various studies reported different results in trends regarding acute coronary syndrome (ACS) subtypes over the last years. We performed a retrospective analysis to determine trends in ACS incidence, demographic characteristics of patients, invasive treatment as well as outcomes and mortality of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI); non-STEMI (NSTEMI) and unstable angina (UA) in our tertiary Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (CICU). Methods We collected data from medical records and our electronic hospital information system on all admissions that occured in March 2003, 2013 and 2023 and compared the data. Results Over the years, there was a significant increase in total number of patients in our CICU (74, 87 and 143 per month, respectively). Patients with ACS accounted for more than half of all patients in the investigated period, but without reaching statistical significance for increase (51.4%, 64.4% and 63.6%; p= 0.156). On the other hand, when considering patients with STEMI, there was a significant upgrowth of the number of such patients (6.8% vs 31% vs 28.7%; p&amp;lt;0.001) with a trend of a decrease in the number of NSTEMI (28.4%, 18.4% and 23.8%; p= 0.324) and patients with UA (16.2%, 14.9% and 11.2%; p= 0.528). Percutaneous interventional treatment significantly rose over time (35.6 vs 61.2 vs 67.8%, p&amp;lt;0.01), while application of ICU restricted therapies like vasopressors (1.7% vs 0 vs 6.3%; p= 0.072) and inotropes (6.8% vs 4.7% vs 8.5%; p= 0.356) showed increasing trend, but without reaching statistical significance. However, CICU length of stay (LOS) notably decreased (59h vs 43h vs 22h; p= &amp;lt;0,001) as well as mortality (9.5% vs 5.7% vs 2.8%; p= &amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion We observed a significant increase in the number of STEMI patients with a declining trend in NSTEMI and UA patients, as well as increase in coronary procedures and vasopressors and inotropes administration, all indicating growing acuity and complexity of our patients. On the other hand, LOS and mortality significantly decreased highlighting better outcomes and treatment success.

Spatial and temporal analysis of thyroid cancer incidence in Guilan Province, Northern Iran, 2009–2018

BackgroundThyroid cancer is one of the most common malignancies of the endocrine system, the fifth most common malignancy in women worldwide, and the second most common cancer in women over 50 in 2019. It is the sixth most common cancer in both sexes and the third most common cancer in women in Guilan province. This study was conducted to describe the geographic variation and investigate any changes in the trend of the thyroid cancer incidence rate. MethodsThis study was conducted on the data of the Guilan University of Medical Sciences cancer registration system. The crude and age-standardized incidence rate was calculated per 100,000 person-years. Joinpoint regression analysis evaluated the time trends and annual percent changes (APC). The incidence rate was estimated separately for each city and high-risk areas were shown on the province map using GIS software. Results1742 cases of thyroid cancer (83.7 % in women and 16.3 % in men) were registered in Guilan province from 2009 to 18. The incidence of thyroid cancer was 5.1-fold higher in women than men. The results of the joinpoint regression analysis showed that the age-standardized incidence rate of thyroid cancer in both sexes has increased significantly over ten years (APC: 26.4; 95 %CI: 22.5–30.4), (P-value < 0.001). In our study, Astaneh-ye Ashrafiyeh, Lahijan, and Langarud cities were identified as high-risk areas of the province for both sexes. ConclusionThe trend of incidence of thyroid cancer in Guilan province is increasing. Also, a wide geographical variation was found in the incidence of thyroid cancer.

Temporal trends in antibiotic prescribing and serious and nonserious infections in children presenting to general practice: a registry-based longitudinal cohort study of 162 507 individuals.

It is crucial to understand the trends in paediatric antibiotic prescribing and serious and nonserious infections to improve antibiotic prescribing practices for children in ambulatory care. Assessing trends in paediatric antibiotic prescribing and infection incidence in general practice from 2002 to 2022. In this retrospective cohort study using INTEGO network data from 162 507 patients in Flanders (Belgium), we calculated antibiotic prescribing rates and proportions alongside incidence rates of serious and nonserious infections, stratified by age (0-1, 2-6, 7-12 years) and municipality. We performed autoregressive moving average time-series analyses and seasonality analyses. From 2002 to 2022, antibiotic prescribing rate decreased significantly: 584/1000 person-years (PY) (95% CI 571-597) to 484/1000PY (95% CI 478-491); so did antibiotic overall prescribing proportion: 46.3% (95% CI 45.1-47.6) to 23.3% (95% CI 22.9-23.7) (59.3% amoxicillin and 17.8% broad spectrum). Prescribing proportions dropped significantly for nonserious (45.6% to 20.9%) and increased for serious infections (64.1% to 69.8%). Proportions significantly dropped for acute suppurative otitis media (74.7% to 64.1%), upper respiratory tract infections (44.9% to 16.6%), bronchitis/bronchiolitis (73.6% to 44.1%) and acute tonsillopharyngitis (59.5% to 21.7%), while significantly increasing for pneumonia (65.2% to 80.2%). Nonserious and serious infection incidence rates increased from 785/1000PY and 34.2/1000PY to 1223/1000PY and 64.1/1000PY, respectively. Blood and CRP testing proportions increased significantly. Antibiotic prescribing in general practice for children declined from 2002 to 2022. Further targeted antibiotic stewardship initiatives are needed to reduce the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics and antibiotic prescribing for conditions such as otitis media and bronchitis/bronchiolitis.

Geographical Disparities in Hypertension Incidence Rate in Iran 2004-2016: Bayesian Spatial Analysis

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmia, and cardiomyopathy all include hypertension as a key risk factor. Research has shown that the early detection and treatment of hypertension and its risk factors, as well as public health policies to reduce behavioral risk factors, have led to a gradual reduction in mortality caused by heart disease and stroke in high-income countries in the past three decades. Trends in hypertension incidence have been monitored at the national level in Iran. The aim of this study examine province-level disparities in Hypertension incidence from 2004 to 2016. Methods: Use the Non-Communicable Diseases Risk-Factors Surveillance in the Islamic Republic of Iran STEPs registry data. to estimate the incidence rate of hypertension for all provinces in 2004, 2006-2009, 2011, and 2016 using a Bayesian spatial model with Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm in OpenBUGS version 3.2.3 and R version 4.2.2. Results: The estimated Hypertension incidence rate in total increased from 19.87 per 1000 people (95% credible interval 14.28, 25.48) in 2004 to 193.02 (171.92, 220.48) in 2016. According to the estimates of 2016, we found that the provinces of Markazi, Ardabil, and Semnan had the highest rate of hypertension, and the provinces of Hormozgan, and Sistan-Baluchistan had the lowest rate. Our findings show that Khorasan, North, Alborz, and Semnan have the most significant percentage change in incidence rate from 2004-2016. Conclusion: To reduce the prevalence of hypertension in Iranian regions, it is crucial to develop regular hypertension screening programs, especially among the elderly

Trends in incidence and survival of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand (2000–2019): a population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry study

BackgroundIn Thailand, the national health care system and nationwide standard treatment protocols have evolved over time, potentially influencing the trends in the incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers. However, further investigations are required to comprehensively study these trends in Khon Kaen, Thailand.MethodsChildhood cancer patients aged 0–14 years (n = 541) who were diagnosed with one of the five most common cancers between 2000 and 2019 from the population-based Khon Kaen Cancer Registry were enrolled. Descriptive statistics were used to analyse the demographic data, which are presented as numbers, percentages, means, and standard deviations. The trends in incidence between 2000 and 2019, including age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and annual percent changes (APCs), were analysed using the Joinpoint regression model. Survival analysis was performed for 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs) according to the Pohar Perme estimator and Kaplan–Meier survival curves.ResultsThe ASRs of the overall top 5 childhood cancer groups were 67.96 and 106.12 per million person-years in 2000 and 2019, respectively. Overall, the APC significantly increased by 2.37% each year for both sexes. The overall 5-year RSRs were 60.5% for both sexes, 58.2% for males, and 63.9% for females. The highest 5-year RSR was for germ cell tumours (84.3%), whereas the lowest 5-year RSR was for neuroblastoma (29.1%).ConclusionsThe incidence and survival rates of childhood cancers in Khon Kaen, Thailand, varied according to sex. The incidence trends increased over time, meanwhile, the relative survival rates rose to satisfactory levels and were comparable to those of other nations with similar financial status. The implementation of national health policies and adherence to national treatment guidelines have improved cancer diagnosis and treatment outcomes.

Trends in incidence, treatment, and relative survival of colorectal cancer in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2021

BackgroundThe epidemiology of colorectal cancer (CRC) has changed rapidly over the years. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in incidence, treatment, and relative survival (RS) of patients diagnosed with CRC in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2021. Patients and methods2 75667 patients diagnosed with CRC between 2000 and 2021 were included from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Analyses were stratified for disease extent (localised: T1-3N0M0; regional: T4N0M0/T1-4N1-2M0; distant: T1-4N0-2M1) and localisation (colon; rectum). Trends were assessed with joinpoint regression. ResultsCRC incidence increased until the mid-2010s but decreased strongly thereafter to rates comparable with the early 2000s. Amongst other trend changes, local excision rates increased for patients with localised colon (2021: 13.6 %) and rectal cancer (2021: 34.9 %). Moreover, primary tumour resection became less common in patients with distant colon (2000–2021: 60.9–12.5 %) or rectal cancer (2000–2021: 47.8–6.9 %), while local treatment of metastases rates increased. Five-year RS improved continuously for localised and regional colon (97.7 % and 72.0 % in 2017, respectively) and rectal cancer (95.2 % and 76.3 % in 2017, respectively). The rate of anti-cancer treatments decreased in distant colon (2010–2021: 80.3 % to 67.2 %; p < 0.001) and rectal cancer (2011–2021: 86.0 % to 77.0 %; p < 0.001). The improvement of five-year RS stagnated for distant colon (2010–2017: 11.2 % to 11.9 %; average percentage of change [APC]: 2.1, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: −7.6, 4.7) and rectal cancer (2009–2017: 12.7 % to 15.6 %; APC: 1.4, 95 % CI: −19.1, 5.5). ConclusionsMajor changes in the incidence and treatment of CRC between 2000 and 2021 were identified and quantified. Five-year RS increased continuously for patients with localised and regional CRC, but stagnated for patients with distant CRC, likely caused by decreased rates of anti-cancer treatment in this group.

Recent and projected incidence trends and risk of anal cancer among people with HIV in North america.

Anal cancer risk is elevated among people with HIV (PWH). Recent anal cancer incidence patterns among PWH in the United States (US) and Canada remain unclear. It is unknown how the incidence patterns may evolve in future years. Using data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design, we investigated absolute anal cancer incidence and incidence trends in the US, Canada, and different US regions. We further estimated relative risk compared with persons without HIV, relative risk among various subgroups, and projected future anal cancer burden among US PWH. During 2001-2016, in the US, age-standardized anal cancer incidence declined 2.2%/year (95%CI=-4.4% to -0.1%), particularly in the Western region (-3.8%/year [95%CI=-6.5% to -0.9%]. In Canada, incidence remained stable. Considerable geographic variation in risk was observed by US regions (eg, over four-fold risk in the Midwest and Southeast compared to the Northeast among men who have sex with men [MSM] with HIV). Anal cancer risk increased with a decrease in nadir CD4 count and was elevated among those with opportunistic illnesses. Anal cancer burden among US PWH is expected to decrease in future years (through 2035), but >70% of cases will continue to occur in MSM with HIV and people with AIDS. Geographic variation in anal cancer risk and trends may reflect underlying differences in screening practices and HIV epidemic. MSM with HIV and PWH with AIDS will continue to bear most anal cancer burden, highlighting the importance of precision prevention.

Breast cancer incidence, stage distribution, and treatment shifts during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide population-level study

BackgroundThe first COVID-19 wave in 2020 necessitated temporary suspension of non-essential medical services including organized cancer screening programs in Belgium. This study assessed the impact of the pandemic on breast cancer (BC) incidence, stage at diagnosis, and management in Belgium in 2020.MethodsAll Belgian residents diagnosed with in situ or invasive BC in 2015–2020 in the nationwide, population-based cancer registry database were included. Incidence trends for 2015–2019 were extrapolated to predict incidence and stage distribution for 2020 and compared with the observed values. National healthcare reimbursement data were used to examine treatment strategies. Exact tumor diameter and nodal involvement, extracted from pathology reports, were analyzed for 2019 and 2020.Results74,975 tumors were selected for analysis of incidence and clinical stage. Invasive BC incidence declined by -5.0% in 2020, with a drop during the first COVID-19 wave (Mar-Jun; -23%) followed by a rebound (Jul-Dec; +7%). Predicted and observed incidence (in situ + invasive) was not different in patients < 50 years. In the 50–69 and 70 + age groups, significant declines of -4.1% and − 8.4% respectively were found. Excess declines were seen in clinical stage 0 and I in Mar-Jun, without excess increases in clinical stage II-IV tumors in Jul-Dec. There was no increase in average tumor diameter or nodal involvement in 2020. Patients diagnosed in Mar-Jun received significantly more neoadjuvant therapy, particularly neoadjuvant hormonal therapy for patients with clinical stage I-II BC.ConclusionsBC incidence decline in 2020 in Belgium was largely restricted to very early-stage BC and patients aged 50 and over. Delayed diagnosis did not result in an overall progression to higher stage at diagnosis in 2020. Observed treatment adaptations in Belgium were successful in prioritizing patients for surgery while preventing tumor progression in those with surgical delay. Continuation of monitoring BC incidence and stage in the future is crucial.

Thyroid cancer incidence trends in lithuania 2018 - 2022. single-centre study

Thyroid cancer incidence trends in lithuania 2018 - 2022. single-centre study

Abstract PO5-09-12: Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil

Abstract Abstract Background: Over the past three decades, numerous countries have experienced a substantial decrease in breast cancer (BC) fatality, attributed to heightened consciousness, widened and earlier screening, and enhanced therapeutic interventions. However, these advancements have not eradicated the disparity in BC treatment across different racial and ethnic groups. In Brazil, the causes of these disparities are diverse and intricate, resembling health inequalities among ethnic communities observed in other countries. This study aimed to investigate the trends in BC incidence and mortality rates in Brazil, considering clinicopathological and sociodemographic variations, and placing particular emphasis on the severity of racial disparity concerning race/skin color. Patients and methods: Incidence trends for women with BC were analyzed using data from 13 Brazilian Population-Based Cancer Registries covering the period 2010-2015. Crude incidence ratios (CIRs) and the annual average percent change (AAPC) were calculated. Clinical and sociodemographic information from 348 Hospital-Based Cancer Registries spanning from 2000 to 2019 was also utilized. Meanwhile, mortality data for the years 2000-2020 were obtained from the National Mortality Information System. Racial and skin color data were collected through a self-declaration process, following the classification proposed by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, which included categories such as white, black, and brown/mixed race. In the analysis, black and brown/mixed race categories were combined as black. Yellow and indigenous categories were excluded. Statistical significance was defined as a p-value less than 0.05. To determine clinically relevant differences, a threshold of more than 5% disparity in proportional values was used as an arbitrary criterion. Results: Between 2010 and 2015, a total of 70,896 newly diagnosed cases of BC were recorded. Mean CIRs were 83.9/100,000 for the overall population, 101.3/100,000 for white women, and 59.7/100,000 for black women. Neither the group of white women (AAPC -1.7; 95% CI: -7.9 to 4.9; p = 0.506) nor the group of black women (AAPC -0.4; 95% CI: -5.0 to 4.5; p = 0.831) exhibited any significant changes in the incidence rate. Black women predominantly originated from underdeveloped regions (56.4%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were referred by the public healthcare system in Brazil (79.0%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), had ≤ 8 years of schooling (68.7%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), were unmarried (50.9%, p&amp;lt; 0.001), reported alcohol consumption (20.9%, p &amp;lt; 0.001), and were diagnosed with advanced stage disease (60.1%, p &amp;lt; 0.001). The escalation in mortality rates among black women exhibited a notable difference, amounting to 3.8 times the increase observed among white women (AAPC + 2.3; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.5; p &amp;lt; 0.001) (AAPC + 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.7; p &amp;lt; 0.001). Conclusion: Despite the lower incidence of BC in black women compared to their white counterparts, there is a concerning rise in BC-related mortality rates among black women. This group exhibits a significantly unfavorable sociodemographic and clinicopathological profile. These results highlight the pressing need to address the multifaceted factors contributing to these disparities, encompassing socioeconomic disparities and unequal healthcare access. Keywords: Breast cancer; racial disparities; incidence; mortality. Citation Format: Jesse Lopes da Silva, Andreia Cristina De Melo, Mariana Espirito Santo Rodrigues, Lucas Zanetti de Albuquerque, Luiz Claudio Santos Thuler. Unraveling the Intricacies of Racial Disparities in Breast Cancer in Brazil [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO5-09-12.

Abstract PO2-11-02: Incidence, treatment patterns and outcomes of breast cancer during the first year of the COVID pandemic: A population-based study

Abstract Background: The COVID pandemic created significant challenges in breast cancer (BC) care which were most pronounced during 2020 when screening and treatment access were reduced. The aims of this study were to evaluate and compare the incidence of BC, treatment patterns, and outcomes during the year 2020 versus the immediate pre-pandemic (2018 and 2019) period. Methods: Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, we calculated age-adjusted incidence rates of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and invasive BC during 2018, 2019 and 2020, with a 95% confidence interval (CI) for each. In the invasive BC cohort, we compared chemotherapy and radiation utilization by year. To account for potential misclassification of cause of death (COD) during the pandemic, we evaluated outcomes by overall survival (OS) in the invasive cohort, defined as time from BC diagnosis until death from any cause. To assess the impact of COVID, OS was truncated at 12 months from diagnosis for each year and we compared OS at 12 months for patients (pts) diagnosed with invasive BC in 2020 versus 2018 and 2019. OS was compared in a multivariable Cox model with diagnosis year 2020 as the reference. The Cox model was adjusted for age at diagnosis, race and ethnicity, sex, tumor grade, histology, stage, tumor subtype, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, marital status, median household income, and rurality. Results: There were 37,834 DCIS diagnoses, and 199,594 invasive BC diagnoses between 2018-2020, with the distribution by year shown in the table. In 2020, the age-adjusted incidence of female DCIS decreased to 31.0 cases per 100,000, and the age-adjusted incidence of female invasive BC decreased to 166.6 cases per 100,000. As shown in the table, the incidence of male BC did not change. Among females, the relative reductions in incidence from 2019 to 2020 were: 15% for DCIS, 12% for stage I, 6% for stage II, 3% for stage III, and 2% for stage IV. Comparing 2020 to 2018-2019, we observed small absolute decreases in the proportions of pts who had surgery (2%) or radiation therapy (2.8%), and a small absolute increase in chemotherapy (1.4%) (p&amp;lt; 0.001 for each). These treatment changes were present across each individual stage. The table shows the 12-month OS rates for each year of diagnosis. COVID was the COD for 77 pts in 2020, 43 pts in 2019 and 0 pts in 2018. In the Cox model, there were no significant differences in the risk of death between pts diagnosed 2018 and 2020 (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90 – 1.01; p=0.13) or between pts diagnosed 2019 and 2020 (adjusted Hazard Ratio: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.89 – 1.01; p=0.08). Conclusions: During the first year of the pandemic, the incidence of BC decreased significantly, largely driven by a decrease in DCIS and early-stage diagnoses. Of interest, there was no stage shift observed with respect to the incidence of stage III or de novo stage IV disease, and no change in male BC incidence. We hypothesize that the observed trends are due to a reduction in screening, but this needs further study. It will be critical to evaluate future trends in cancer incidence beyond 2020, as it is possible that the reduction in early-stage diagnoses represent missed diagnoses that will be identified at a later stage in subsequent years. Finally, while there was no difference in 12-month OS by year of diagnosis, the true impact of the COVID pandemic on BC-specific outcomes will require further follow-up. Citation Format: Jose Leone, Julieta Leone, Michael Hassett, Rachel Freedman, Jorge Avila, Carlos Vallejo, Nabihah Tayob, Sara Tolaney, Nancy Lin. Incidence, treatment patterns and outcomes of breast cancer during the first year of the COVID pandemic: A population-based study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO2-11-02.

Trends in childhood leukemia incidence in urban countries and their relation to environmental factors, including space weather

Leukemia is the most common cancer in children. Its incidence has been increasing worldwide since 1910th, suggesting the presence of common sources of the disease, most likely related to people’s lifestyle and environment. Understanding the relationship between childhood leukemia and environmental conditions is critical to preventing the disease. This discussion article examines established potentially-carcinogenic environmental factors, such as vehicle emissions and fires, alongside space weather-related parameters like cosmic rays and the geomagnetic field. To discern the primary contributor, we analyze trends and annual variations in leukemia incidence among 0-14-year-olds in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Russia from 1990 to 2018. Comparisons are drawn with the number of vehicles (representing gasoline emissions) and fire-affected land areas (indicative of fire-related pollutants), with novel data for Russia introduced for the first time. While childhood leukemia incidence is rising in all countries under study, the rate of increase in Russia is twice that of other nations, possibly due to a delayed surge in the country’s vehicle fleet compared to others. This trend in Russia may offer insights into past leukemia levels in the USA, Canada, and Australia. Our findings highlight vehicular emissions as the most substantial environmental hazard for children among the factors examined. We also advocate for the consideration of potential modulation of carcinogenic effects arising from variations in cosmic ray intensity, as well as the protective role of the geomagnetic field. To support the idea, we provide examples of potential space weather effects at both local and global scales. The additional analysis includes statistical data from 49 countries and underscores the significance of the magnetic field dip in the South Atlantic Anomaly in contributing to a peak in childhood leukemia incidence in Peru, Ecuador and Chile. We emphasize the importance of collectively assessing all potentially carcinogenic factors for the successful future predictions of childhood leukemia risk in each country.

Trend analysis and age-period-cohort effects on morbidity and mortality of liver cancer from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China

IntroductionLiver cancer is one of the most common malignant gastrointestinal tumors worldwide. This study intends to provide insight into the epidemiological characteristics and development trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality from 2010 to 2020 in Guangzhou, China.MethodsData were collected from the Cancer Registry and Reporting Office of Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cross-sectional study, Joinpoint regression (JPR) model, and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model were conducted to analyze the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trend of liver cancer among the entire study period.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality of liver cancer in Guangzhou showed an overall decreasing trend. The disparity in risk of morbidity and mortality between the two sexes for liver cancer is increasing. The cohort effect was the most significant among those born in 1965~1969, and the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the total population increased and then decreased with the birth cohort. Compared with the birth cohort born in 1950~1954 (the reference cohort), the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the males born in 1995~1999 decreased by 32% and 41%, respectively, while the risk in the females decreased by 31% and 32%, respectively.ConclusionsThe early detection, prevention, clinical diagnosis, and treatment of liver cancer in Guangzhou have made remarkable achievements in recent years. However, the risk of liver cancer in the elderly and the middle-aged males is still at a high level. Therefore, the publicity of knowledge related to the prevention and treatment of liver cancer among the relevant population groups should be actively carried out to enhance the rate of early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer and to advocate a healthier lifestyle.

Abstract PO4-02-13: Parity and age first full term pregnancy affects the age of breast cancer diagnosis in breast cancer subtypes defined by estrogen receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2

Abstract Background: Reproductive factors like parity and age at first full term pregnancy (FTP1) are found to have an impact on the occurrence of breast cancer (BC) in many epidemiological studies. Importantly, since the 70s, an ongoing trend to postpone FTP1 and have less children is observed. Additionally, there is an increasing trend for breast cancer incidence in young women in the past several decades, which may match the changing exposures to reproductive factors over time. To our knowledge, few studies focus on the association between parity, FTP1 and the age of breast cancer diagnosis. In this study, we aimed at studying the association between age at breast cancer diagnosis and reproductive factors (parity and FTP1) in each of the four breast cancer subtypes defined by estrogen receptor (ER) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2). Patients and method: We considered patients who were &amp;gt;34 years old and were diagnosed and/or treated for early BC in University Hospitals Leuven between January 2000 and November 2020. Patient and tumor characteristics were extracted from the patient files. Missing values were filled in by multiple imputation. A linear mixed model with birth cohorts as random effects was built for premenopausal and postmenopausal patients separately to investigate the association between two reproductive factors (parity and age at first full term pregnancy) and age at diagnosis in each of four breast cancer subtypes defined by ER and HER2. ER positivity was defined as &amp;gt;1% of cells staining positive and reflex fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) testing was performed for samples that immunohistochemically (IHC) stained for HER2 with IHC score of 2+ or 3+. Parous women are classified into low parity (1 or 2 children) and high parity (≥ 3 children) and FTP1 was divided into &amp;lt; or ≥ 27 years of age. BMI was considered a possible confounder and was corrected for. We first excluded nulliparous people and compared the mean ages at diagnosis in different parity groups and FTP1 groups separately. We created new variable reproductive patterns by taking intersection of parity categories and FTP1 categories. Then the mean ages at diagnosis in parous groups could be compared with the mean age at diagnosis in nulliparous patients. Step down Bonferroni procedure is applied to correct for multiple comparisons. Result: 3039 premenopausal patients and 6569 postmenopausal patients at breast cancer diagnosis were included in the study. Patients with early age at FTP1 have older age at diagnosis in case of ER+HER2+ BC in both premenopausal and postmenopausal group as compared to patients with late FTP1 (Table 1). For premenopausal patients with ER-HER2+, early age at FTP1 was associated with older age at diagnosis in comparison to late age at FTP1. Premenopausal patients with ER+HER2- BC that had low parity and late FTP1 were diagnosed 0.66 years later than nulliparous patients (p= 0,01). Conclusion: In both premenopausal and postmenopausal parous patients with early FTP1, an older age at diagnosis was observed in HER2+ cases only. When compared to nulliparous patients, the combination of low parity and late FTP1 was associated with older age at diagnosis for premenopausal patients with ER+ HER2- BC. Table 1 Differences in mean age at diagnosis between FTP1 groups in parous patients Menopause Subtype Comparison Estimate (difference in mean age at diagnosis) p-value pre ER+HER2+ &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 1,2030 0,0045 ER+HER2- &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 -0,0548 0,7468 ER-HER2+ &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 1,3519 0,0334 ER-HER2- &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 0,4023 0,3326 post ER+HER2+ &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 1,1764 0,0175 ER+HER2- &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 0,0743 0,7069 ER-HER2+ &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 -0,3750 0,6023 ER-HER2- &amp;lt;27 vs &amp;gt;=27 0,3862 0,3815 Citation Format: Jiumeng Zhang, Zhao Liu, Karen Van Baelen, Maja Vangoitsenhoven, Hans Wildiers, Adelheid Soubry, Patrick Neven. Parity and age first full term pregnancy affects the age of breast cancer diagnosis in breast cancer subtypes defined by estrogen receptor and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PO4-02-13.